The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report came out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and basically shows that for every job opening, there’s 3 job seekers – except for the extra 5 million people that they didn’t count. When adding those 5 Million that are “discouraged workers,” it makes 16.9 Million people looking for jobs with only 3.9 million job openings. 4 to 1 odds. And that doesn’t count the people that are UNDER employed (marginal workers).
Normally politicians like to say that there’s some kind of skill shortage and all that to find a way to blame the people for not finding a job. The data says that it’s effecting all sector industries (Source data from BLS):
So if we want to use probability statistics, we can say that in the United States right now, you have 4:1 odds AGAINST finding a job – in other words, for every person that gets a job, they will have had 4 failures/denials. And that assumes that all things are equal, such as a perfect resume, equal competition, no discrimination, and total fairness in the labor market.
Factor in competition from marginal workers, discrimination, and all that, and the odds become much worse – though there’s no real way to quantify it. 4:1 against are pretty bad odds all by itself, so I’ll leave it at that.