JOLT-ing 4 to 1 Odds

The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report came out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and basically shows that for every job opening, there’s 3 job seekers – except for the extra 5 million people that they didn’t count. When adding those 5 Million that are “discouraged workers,” it makes 16.9 Million people looking for jobs with only 3.9 million job openings. 4 to 1 odds. And that doesn’t count the people that are UNDER employed (marginal workers).

Normally politicians like to say that there’s some kind of skill shortage and all that to find a way to blame the people for not finding a job. The data says that it’s effecting all sector industries (Source data from BLS):

Job openings

So if we want to use probability statistics, we can say that in the United States right now, you have 4:1 odds AGAINST finding a job – in other words, for every person that gets a job, they will have had 4 failures/denials. And that assumes that all things are equal, such as a perfect resume, equal competition, no discrimination, and total fairness in the labor market.

Factor in competition from marginal workers, discrimination, and all that, and the odds become much worse – though there’s no real way to quantify it. 4:1 against are pretty bad odds all by itself, so I’ll leave it at that.

This entry was posted in Economics, Political Economy, Poverty, Socioeconomics, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to JOLT-ing 4 to 1 Odds

  1. 06cedmuho says:

    Reblogged this on 06cedmuho.

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